You don't build a wave. Only catch one.

I originally wrote this on the beach, so forgive the analogy: nobody builds a wave.

You can be the strongest paddler on the water, with the best board, the best technique and years of training. If the wave isn't there, you sit on flat water and wait.

What I underestimated: timing

That is what I underestimated as a founder: timing. I thought success was only about the product, the team and the effort – build hard enough, and the market will follow.

The market doesn't follow. The market is the ocean. It moves on its own schedule, and it does not care how well prepared you are.

Silicon Valley versus Europe

My own moment was a confusing one. We spent a couple of months in Silicon Valley, and over there it felt like the wave had already arrived. Everyone was talking about it, buying it and building on it; the timing seemed obvious. Then we flew back to Europe – and there was still calm.

What 200 startups reveal

Bill Gross once looked at 200 startups and asked what separated the winners from the rest. It wasn't the team, the idea or the money: timing explained more than anything else. His TED talk is only about six minutes long. I wish I had seen it ten years earlier.

Because a great product on the wrong wave still sinks, while an okay product on the right one gets carried further than it deserves.

Reading the water

The good news is that waves are visible if you look up: shifts in technology, in regulation, in behavior. And they don't hit every beach at the same time. Right now, AI is the biggest swell most of us will ever see. Some founders are already on it; some are still polishing the board on the beach.

What I tell founders today

Before you perfect the board, don't forget to read the water.

Which wave carried you – and which one reached your shore too late?